The number of travelers expected to arrive in Spain’s top travel destinations, such as Tenerife, Mallorca and Malaga, is showing triple-digit growth compared to the same period last year, according to our Spain Travel Forecast report. aircraft powered by Demand.AI.
From all the extrapolated data from the ATF report, we are able to compare the numbers of actual travelers arriving at airports over the last 12 months and then the numbers of travelers forecasted for a period of the next three months. Report data also includes actual values for 2019 and 2020, excluding 2021.
Here are the main highlights of the forecasted demand for the three destinations:
- With the diminishing severity of Covid and its subsequent restrictions, Tenerife is enjoying greater popularity among visitors, as the season is perfect for the beautiful beaches of the Canary Islands, which normally attract around 12 million tourists a year. People from the UK and Ireland are expected to flock in numbers to the tune of 1.2 million to enjoy the pleasant summer in Tenerife.
- History buffs and adventure seekers will be delighted with the weather forecast for Mallorca for the coming months, making it the perfect place to explore the ancient monuments and other attractions that the largest island of the Balearic Islands has to offer. This is reflected in the expected large influx of over 4 million travelers over the next 3 months.
- It is not without reason that many people, including the famous historical traveler Ibn Batuta, describe Malaga as one of the largest and most beautiful cities in Andalusia. Located on the Costa De Sol (Coast of the Sun), it offers travelers an exciting opportunity to soak up Spanish culture at its best. So demand for the next 90 days is roughly double that of Tenerife.
- Between these three popular destinations, the charm of Palma seems to win over travelers since Mallorca enjoys the highest demand, a little more than triple that of Tenerife.
Here are some additional handpicked details from the ATF forecast report:
Around 1.2 million people are expected to arrive in Tenerife in the next 90 days (as of the 11e May 2022). That’s about 50% more than the number of actual travelers in 2021, and more than double what it was during the pandemic. However, recovery to pre-covid levels could take more than 3 months, as the current situation compared to pre-covid levels for the same period is 25% lower.
The source markets expected to attract the most travelers to Tenerife are the UK, Ireland and the Iberian Peninsula, with the UK contributing 4x to the influx compared to the same period in 2021.
For a shorter period of 30 days, almost 425,000 people are expected to travel to Tenerife, which is a massive jump of 930% from 2020, but still 18% below pre-covid levels. However, its performance is 136% higher than the same period in 2021.
Interestingly, compared to other days of the week, most people are expected to travel on Tuesday in May, followed by Wednesday in June and Saturday in July this year. This contrasts with Saturday which recorded the highest number of air travel in May and July 2021, and Tuesday in June 2021.
Around 4.06 million people are likely to travel to Mallorca in the next 3 months (such as 11e May 2022). This is double the number of travelers for the same period last year, which means a very positive recovery compared to last year. In fact, that’s 363% better than it was during the pandemic in 2020. Looking at pre-covid travel for the same period in 2019, we saw a slight drop of 12%, which means that A return to pre-covid levels is on the cards in the coming months.
Central Europe attracts most travelers to Mallorca, followed by the Iberian Peninsula. This is constant over the next 30, 60 and 90 days. Compared to pre-pandemic figures, travel from the UK and Ireland was the hardest hit, with a drop of up to 36%.
Over the next 30 days, almost 1.38 million people are expected to visit Mallorca, a whopping 1178% jump from 2020, and around three times as many for this period compared to last year. This number is almost similar to pre-covid travel data, slightly lower by 2%.
Contrary to the consistent trend seen in 2021 where Saturdays saw the highest bookings from May to July, forecasted cumulative travel in 2022 is spread across the weekday spectrum, with Sundays in May, Wednesdays in June and Saturdays in July having the greatest influx of travellers.
For Malaga, no less than 2.36 million people are expected to arrive in the city in the next 90 days (as the 11e May 2022). Although this figure is still 14% below pre-covid levels, this is a three-digit recovery for the two years to 2022, standing at 131% from 2021 and 355% compared to 2020.
Many travelers from the UK and Ireland seem to favor Malaga over other destinations in Spain, with more than 767,000 people already booked and ready to travel, and another 548,000 likely to book soon. While mid-May to mid-July seems to have a steady influx of passengers, mid-July to August will likely be less busy, but still, over 101% compared to 2020 and 28% busier than at the same time in 2021.
While Saturday was the busiest travel day in May 2021, the focus has now shifted to Sunday in May 2022. Similarly, while Tuesday was busiest in June 2021, Thursday seems to be brewing to higher demand in June 2022.
Slow but steady road to recovery
Overall, for the 3 destinations, we see that demand forecasts suggest a steady return to travel demand to pre-Covid levels, with all three cities Tenerife-Mallorca-Malaga seeing 90-day volumes that do not are only 15-24% lower than 2019. This is strong evidence that the ill effects of the pandemic are behind us and that the travel industry is gradually moving closer to normalcy – A sign that is sure to cheer DMOs, hotels, rental companies and everyone else involved in the hospitality sector.
To note: All data in this article comes from RateGain’s new Airline Traveler Forecast (ATF) module on the Demand.AI platform. The ATF model forecasts the number of air passengers expected to travel to the selected destination in the near future (30/60/90 days) from a set of predefined source markets. This forecast comprises a number of data points, including proprietary and third-party data sources such as flight schedules, GDS reservations, search data, airfare information, ticket availability, forecasts OTA reservations, etc., while combining them with important global updates. related to Covid and travel.
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